Job Market Shows Signs of Weakening as Consumers Turn Gloomy_我的网站
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The number of job openings fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, down from the prior month’s revised 9.1 million in a sign that the economy is downshifting, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.
The drop brings the number about 2.5 million below the 11.4 million available jobs of a year ago.
Openings fell in professional and business services, down 198,000; health care and social assistance, off by 130,000; and state and local government, including education, where the combined losses totaled 129,000. There was a strong increase in information industry jobs, up by 101,000; and in transportation, warehousing and utilities, where openings increased by 75,000.
“Now it is taking a bit longer for jobseekers to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “There’s meaningful slack in the job market, but it is still a historically tight job market. Overall, I still see the U.S. labor market as understaffed.”
The government will report the monthly jobs number for August on Friday with expectations for a gain of about 168,000 jobs.
“Investors should expect a softening labor report this Friday, further cementing the thesis that the Fed is getting close to finishing its tightening cycle,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August found a pullback as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gasoline and groceries.
The present situation index – a reading of how consumers assess the current economy – fell to 144.8 from 153.0 in July. The expectations index, a forward-looking measure, declined to 80.2 from July’s bump to 88.
“Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,” saidDana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular.”
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups – and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” Peterson added. “Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
Consumers expected higher interest rates to come, while also lowering their assessment of the probability of a recession.
Also Tuesday, home prices rose 0.9% in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Prices were unchanged on a year-over-year basis.
"U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.”
"As we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Lazzara added. “Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.
“Today’s market offers buyers the frustrating combination of low inventory and high home prices,” said Realtor.com economic data analyst Hannah Jones. “Many existing homeowners remain on the sidelines of the market, content to stay put as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs.”
“As a result, home shoppers are seeing fewer existing homes for sale and facing more competition for the homes available,” Jones added. “Builders have started to pick up construction activity to fill this gap, but remain cautious as affordability challenges continue to stifle buyer demand.”
。 Kenny 编译 首席监察员Peter Boshier发布报告，称新西兰儿童部（ Oranga Tamariki）在被投诉后仍屡发违法现象，对一个政府部门来说“完全不可接受”。在报告中，Boshier呼吁本届政府对儿童部进行紧急彻底的改革。
最近四年（2019-2023）新西兰儿童部收到两千多起投诉和质询。去年生效的《儿童部体系监督法案》要求监察员对接与该机构有关的投诉并采取行动。
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Boshier表示，在进行深入调查后，他发现儿童部在遵守法律和流程方面存在严重的问题。
“法律是好的，实践是好的，他们也知道怎么去做，但就是缺少做正确事情的自律性，”报告说。
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长达119页的报告提到很多“令人痛苦的故事”，其中包括：一位残疾青少年，多年来被违背自己意愿的交给收容所；一位年轻残疾母亲，孩子刚生下来就被送去寄养；一些年龄过大的儿童，依然被错误的送进福利系统；家庭事务法院收到的很多信息都是错的……
“今天的新西兰政府机构是无法接受这些行为的。”
(图片来源：NZ Herald)
譬如2021年，一位家长投诉儿童部，称其从2015年起就夺走了自己孩子的监护权，理由是孩子存在复杂的智力、行为和身体障碍。
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报告称：“他们的父母和年长兄弟在此期间曾多次要求孩子回到家人身边，他们担心这名青少年被违背意愿的送入收容机构。”
Boshier写道：“儿童部做出任何决定时，最重要的考虑因素应是儿童利益的最大化。从我掌握的证据来看，儿童部显然没有做出足够努力来充分了解青少年的福祉、他们的最大利益或他们的意愿。”
Boshier认为儿童部存在“不当歧视”。他提出了多个建议，包括向家长做出全面且深刻的书面道歉，以及修改行为准则以确保遵守《残疾人权利公约》。
D | ——新西兰在2008年批准加入该公约，该公约对新西兰具有国际法的约束力。
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儿童部主管实践和体验的副首席执行官Nicolette Dickson对报告表示欢迎，但她强调说变革正在发生。
“我们接受需要做出更多改变的事实。
F | 监察员在报告中提出的问题、建议和改革，我们已经制定了相关工作计划，正在讨论或已经解决其中一部分。”
但Boshier说儿童部需要一个时间表来尽快落实改革措施。
“‘我们正在努力’可能并不合适。
